Stockholm and Helsinki have so far ruled out the hypothesis of an urgent request to join NATO, but the two countries were never so close to taking this step, according to analysts.
“Everything is possible at the moment, and there is a signal from NATO countries that the lesson of (Finland and Sweden) accession can come quickly, so I think that the This is subject to a political decision by Stockholm and Helsinki."
Sweden and Finland are officially non-aligned countries, but they have been partners of NATO since the mid-1990s, after turning the page on their neutrality at the end of the Cold War.
Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin announced Tuesday that the mentality of citizens and politicians toward joining NATO is "changing" in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
After a meeting of party leaders to discuss a petition calling for a referendum on joining NATO, Marin said the debate "is in full swing and will, of course, intensify."
But she cautioned against drawing conclusions at this stage.
In less than a week, the petition collected 50,000 signatures needed for approval by the Finnish parliament.
A poll published Monday showed for the first time that 53% of Finns support joining the military alliance.
And the number of supporters to join doubled in just a few weeks, reaching only 28% in January.
Charlie Salonius-Pasternak, a researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, told AFP that the poll's result is "historic and exceptional", and he expects support to remain sustainably high.
In Sweden, too, the level of public support for the country's entry into NATO has never been as high as it is now. The support rate among Swedes reached 41%, against 35% opposition, while 24% did not take a position, according to a poll conducted by the "Novos" Institute and the results of which were broadcast on the national television "Svrijes Television" (SVT) on Friday.
- Russian warnings -
Both Finland and Sweden broke a major taboo in their security policy, which is not to export weapons or military equipment to countries at war.
In addition to protective equipment (helmets, flak jackets and food rations), Sweden will send about 5,000 anti-tank missile launchers for the first time since the Winter War in 1939, Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said, when Stockholm provided aid to its Soviet-invaded Finnish neighbor. .
"I think this is only the beginning of a reassessment of Swedish security policy," Karlander said. "There is also a discussion about what measures should be taken to strengthen the Swedish army."
And in another "historic decision", according to the words of SANA-Marin, Finland decided on Monday to send lethal weapons to Ukraine, including 2,500 assault rifles, 1,500 rocket launchers and ammunition.
The accession of Finland and/or Sweden to NATO is expected to anger Moscow, in the context of an explosive crisis between Vladimir Putin's Russia and the West.
On Friday, the Russian Foreign Minister stressed that the accession of Stockholm and Helsinki to NATO "will have serious military and political repercussions."
Helsinki notes that this warning has been repeated in recent years, refusing to see the matter as a threat to invasion, as happened in Ukraine.
Moscow has made the pursuit of NATO's eastward expansion a cause of war in a case that Russia claims has been betrayed since the fall of the Berlin Wall.
Stockholm and Helsinki have been keen in recent weeks to leave the door for their entry into NATO open to them, as they have been excluded from applying for accession.
"I want to be very clear. It is only Sweden, in an independent way, that chooses its approach with regard to security," Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said Friday evening.
AFP
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